PGA 2016 - The Week of the Nearly Ones?

Two Majors in Two Weeks. Do we really need all of this excitement at once? I suppose at least we have the biggest spectacle of the year to look forward to…. No not the pitch and putt at the Olympics but the Ryder Cup of course. The Ryder Cup could well be in the back of many players minds at the fourth and final Major of the year, where a number of players from both sides of the Atlantic will be looking to impress and make the squad for the first week of October.

One name who will definitely be on the European team sheet is the surprise victor of the Masters Danny Willett. Danny has failed to reignite the flame that pushed him to the Augusta win and the last two Majors have gone to two of the biggest ‘nearly’ boys in golf, Dustin Johnson and Henrik Stenson. Others in that category include the perennial nearly man Sergio Garcia and Rickie Fowler (35-1). Of those two I would certainly fancy Sergio. Rickie has had an abysmal summer of 2016 and although his game does seem to have made some improvements in the last month, he has actually made the cut a couple of times, the Spaniard, who is running out of time to claim his Major, looked solid at Troon with his fifth place equalling his US Open finish.

Speaking of Troon, I had the pleasure of attending the glorious Friday. Standing in a wooly hat and waterproofs for ten hours on the Scottish coast in a vicious wind was a shock to my Southern complexion but what a day of golf it was. Two players who caught the eye are paired together this week, Tony Finau (100-1) and Matthew Fitzpatrick. Finau, who looks like a cross between Craig David and a basketball player, must be one of the longest hitters of the ball in the game. His game unfortunately got worse throughout the Open weekend but this course will suit him and he finished tenth in this tournament last year. Finau is definitely one to look out for, as is Fitzpatrick (175-1). Young Matthew had a shocking time at Troon but his confidence and swing were extremely exciting.

Other groups you will want to follow for the next two days include the Major winners DJ and Stenson (14-1) and the trio of Rory McIlroy, Jason Day and Phil Mickelson. Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy are the current favourites for this week’s competition at 8-1, and this is rightly so for the former, who has enjoyed some fine form since his US Open victory and finally ridding himself of the choker tag. McIlroy looked like he was going to break through at Troon, and although he did, it was too late, finishing fifth after a brilliant final round. Obviously it was Stenson’s final round at Troon that is definitely one for the history books, while the ever steady Phil Mickelson might still be recovering from his shock lose, having also played one of the best rounds in Major history. Day (10-1) seemed to put a disappointing Open performance behind him when finishing in the top 20 at the Canadian Open last week but I would be pushed to believe any of these five will be sitting at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday. So who will be? My favourite three are below:

• One player who has slipped nicely under the radar is JB Holmes (60-1) who finished fourth at Troon and third at Augusta. Hopefully he will not be another to fall into the nearly man category and come out fighting this weekend.
• Adam Scott (30-1). Adam has a fine record in the PGA Championship with four top ten finishes and he put in a respectable performance at The Open, finishing tied 43rd in a tournament that did not pay to his strengths. He was 40th when the tournament was last played at Balustrol in 2005 (Big Phil took that title) but should go better.
• Fat Boy Patrick Reed (55-1) is unfortunately another who could well earn the nearly tag if he does not cruise to victory soon. He finished 12th at Troon, his best Major finish yet, and has made the cut in the last two PGA Championships. Reed certainly has bags of confidence and maybe his Troon performance will spur him onto his first victory in two years.

The Open 2016

The third golfing Major of the year will take place this week at Royal Troon in Glasgow. Therefore because it is in the cold and barren land that has produced the likes of Andy Murray and Nicola Sturgeon it is bound to be a gloomy, damp and depressing setting, lets hope the golf lights up the stage and throws up an exciting back nine come Sunday.

As ever the betting companies are going all out to get your dosh so make sure you look out for the best price, the most places and any enhanced offers for new customers.

I have drawn up a little list of qualities I think the winner should possess -

• Those with Links golf experience.
• Anyone who is used to playing in adverse conditions. Rain, Sleet, Snow, Hurricanes etc the forecast is wet, wet, wet.
• The few who have shown confidence and a little bit of bottle when faced with a big stage.
• Not the favourite. Last year The Open was won by Zach Johnson, who was sent off at 100-1, maybe this is what gave Leicester hope in the Premier League?! In fact you need to go back to the Tiger Woods era ten years ago to find a winning favourite of this tournament.
• Anyone without an EU Passport  So despite this Major being on European soil, with the home team slightly improving their record here in recent years, it is two Americans and Aussie who currently head the field, and rightly so. The American army unfortunately has a great record at this event, taking 13 of the last 21 Claret Jugs. This, coupled with the fact that the last six winners at Royal Troon were all from across the Atlantic, you do have to wonder why the Europeans are even bothering to turn up.

So onto who will I be placing my pennies on:

Firstly I am going to ignore all of my advice and forget all three of the foreign favourites and back Rory McIlroy. 10-1 is a fair price, his game is heading in the right direction, the course and conditions should suit, and he will have the crowd (bar myself) behind him. Plus he is basically a Yank now anyway as he spends more time there than in Ireland.

N.B. **He did take NINE shots to get out of a bunker earlier this week... http://bit.ly/29y2Oh3**

A name who has crept up the betting to land a short price is Branden Grace. The South African has been very active on the European Tour this season and from his last five Major starts he has three top five finishes. He is 22-1 but I think there may be value elsewhere… Step forward Shane Lowry. He finished second in the US Open last month, has many of the credentials to fill the bullet points above (although he is another Guinness Swigger from Ireland) and he is great value at 35-1.

For some bigger priced players I am going to turn to last weekend’s Scottish Open. The Scottish Open is a good indicator of things to come. Phil Mickelson was the last winner of the event to go on and take the Major, therefore Alex Noren will be hoping to follow those footsteps. Two other players caught the eye last weekend, the New Zealander Danny Lee and the Scottish-native Russell Knox. Lee has made the cut in the first two Majors of the year, although he did miss it as last year’s Open, and is clearly on the upward curve. He recorded a Scottish Open top ten and is 125-1. Definitely worth an outside punt. Russell Knox, who lies at 80-1 in the betting, is another making some 2016 headway. He won the HSBC Championship at the end of last year and has a couple of top 20 finishes on the PGA Tour to his name.

I suppose now I best try and find some Americans to back. It is proving tricky to find some with some good Open form, other than those at the short end of the betting, and the first name that springs to mind is of course the 2013 Champion Phil Mickelson, who is 35-1. After that we are pushed; Bubba Watson has a dire Open record, Patrick Reed has played twice and managed 20th place last year whilst Brandt Snedeker and Matt Kuchar have one top ten to their name so... Lets head to Jim Furyk. We are getting a bit desperate but he has finished in the top ten six times and was second in the US Open last month. He did not make the cut when the Open last visited Troon in 2004 but he was fourth in 1997. At 70-1 he stands in better stead than his compatriots listed above.

PS I am obviously backing Rickie Fowler too. He actually made the cut on his last start, Links golf suits his game, he is 28-1 and I like looking at him when he wears orange.