Am I Going To Survive Cheltenham 2017?

I have not written anything about racing in forever and after a few requests for a Cheltenham 2017 blog I thought I better put a few words on a page for my handful of loyal readers!

This week my greatest fear is whether I am actually going to be alive come the Foxhunters on Friday. Having reached the grand old age of 30 last summer I am now firmly in the Veterans Chase. Instead of filling our cases with hip flasks and vodka our crew have packed painkillers, Berroca and hand warmers. We might just make it out in Cheltenham town for a drink or two, although white wine has already been banned as it makes us resemble the cast of Geordie Shore and gives me a blinding headache the next day. Obviously we are making the journey to the other side of the country for the racing anyway!

Having studied the form for all of 20 minutes, as well as watching the Racing UK previews and wandering round the corner to The Racing Centre to listen to the tips of Newmarket’s National Hunt elite, we are well equipped to lose the last few pennies in our accounts. This may also be due to us buying ridiculously expensive coats in the Tented Village (I did this in January too as a little warm-up!).

Unlike most previews lets not spend 90% of our time discussing the Supreme Novices Hurdle. Melon is unknown quantity and according to every man and his dog the vibes are not great. If you were Willie Mullins would you really be shouting your mouth off if you think he was the best thing since sliced bread anyway? Personally I am going to side with Ballyandy here, I LOVE previous Cheltenham form (particularly if it comes from the Festival) so I fancy last year's Champion Bumper winner to land the spoils first thing on Tuesday.

Now onto the Big Four, in which unfortunately you can make a great case for the favourites.

Apparently this year’s Champion Hurdle is as open as it will ever be. If you fancy some each-way money then go for The New One. He loves Cheltenham and could well sneak into the frame. To take victory I am going for Yanworth. Who knows what he will do when he reaches that bottom bend to head up the home straight? But his second to Yorkhill in last year’s Neptune cannot be ignored and he should relish a quick pace.

Now I do not have a lot to say about the Queen Mother, other than sit back and enjoy Douvan. For an each-way punt here I would currently go for the inconsistent menace L’Ami Serge. Why? Because the last time he was out of the frame was his fourth to Douvan in the Supreme Novices Hurdle in 2015. And he is 33-1. So he is inconsistently always in the frame!

On Thursday many will see Unowhatimeanharry as a certainty for the World Hurdle but I am going to step away from the favourite here. Shaneshill was second to Blaklion at last year’s Festival. His best performances come at three miles and if you are going to take the favourite on I think he is the horse to do so.

The Gold Cup. For many the best race of the week. Personally nothing will ever beat Denman’s performance in 2008 (make sure you get a glimpse of him at the ROR parade on Tuesday) but I think Native River is the one to go for this year. His performance in the Welsh Grand National was exceptional. However, as I am sure many will be, I will also be rooting for stablemate Cue Card, I think he would have won if he had stayed up last year, but unfortunately I think his mature legs will be against him (rather like mine!). For an each way shot I like Outlander. His Lexus win was brilliant and that race has strong correlation with a good Gold Cup performances.

So other horses to watch out for? I am looking forward to seeing Josses Hill take the Ryanair and Cause of Causes the Cross Country race (Not many horses take three different races at the Festival, name one!). As mentioned in previous years you cannot beat picking horses out in the Pre-Parade ring for the Bumper (previous winners Cue Card and Hairy Molly who returned 66-1 and 33-1 have come from the Pocock Family picks here) and back experienced riders in the Foxhunters and Amateur races.

And for my the biggest tip of the week? Double up on your daily Berocca to ensure you make it to the Final Flight bar on Friday evening...

Happy punting, drinking and shopping!

PGA 2016 - The Week of the Nearly Ones?

Two Majors in Two Weeks. Do we really need all of this excitement at once? I suppose at least we have the biggest spectacle of the year to look forward to…. No not the pitch and putt at the Olympics but the Ryder Cup of course. The Ryder Cup could well be in the back of many players minds at the fourth and final Major of the year, where a number of players from both sides of the Atlantic will be looking to impress and make the squad for the first week of October.

One name who will definitely be on the European team sheet is the surprise victor of the Masters Danny Willett. Danny has failed to reignite the flame that pushed him to the Augusta win and the last two Majors have gone to two of the biggest ‘nearly’ boys in golf, Dustin Johnson and Henrik Stenson. Others in that category include the perennial nearly man Sergio Garcia and Rickie Fowler (35-1). Of those two I would certainly fancy Sergio. Rickie has had an abysmal summer of 2016 and although his game does seem to have made some improvements in the last month, he has actually made the cut a couple of times, the Spaniard, who is running out of time to claim his Major, looked solid at Troon with his fifth place equalling his US Open finish.

Speaking of Troon, I had the pleasure of attending the glorious Friday. Standing in a wooly hat and waterproofs for ten hours on the Scottish coast in a vicious wind was a shock to my Southern complexion but what a day of golf it was. Two players who caught the eye are paired together this week, Tony Finau (100-1) and Matthew Fitzpatrick. Finau, who looks like a cross between Craig David and a basketball player, must be one of the longest hitters of the ball in the game. His game unfortunately got worse throughout the Open weekend but this course will suit him and he finished tenth in this tournament last year. Finau is definitely one to look out for, as is Fitzpatrick (175-1). Young Matthew had a shocking time at Troon but his confidence and swing were extremely exciting.

Other groups you will want to follow for the next two days include the Major winners DJ and Stenson (14-1) and the trio of Rory McIlroy, Jason Day and Phil Mickelson. Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy are the current favourites for this week’s competition at 8-1, and this is rightly so for the former, who has enjoyed some fine form since his US Open victory and finally ridding himself of the choker tag. McIlroy looked like he was going to break through at Troon, and although he did, it was too late, finishing fifth after a brilliant final round. Obviously it was Stenson’s final round at Troon that is definitely one for the history books, while the ever steady Phil Mickelson might still be recovering from his shock lose, having also played one of the best rounds in Major history. Day (10-1) seemed to put a disappointing Open performance behind him when finishing in the top 20 at the Canadian Open last week but I would be pushed to believe any of these five will be sitting at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday. So who will be? My favourite three are below:

• One player who has slipped nicely under the radar is JB Holmes (60-1) who finished fourth at Troon and third at Augusta. Hopefully he will not be another to fall into the nearly man category and come out fighting this weekend.
• Adam Scott (30-1). Adam has a fine record in the PGA Championship with four top ten finishes and he put in a respectable performance at The Open, finishing tied 43rd in a tournament that did not pay to his strengths. He was 40th when the tournament was last played at Balustrol in 2005 (Big Phil took that title) but should go better.
• Fat Boy Patrick Reed (55-1) is unfortunately another who could well earn the nearly tag if he does not cruise to victory soon. He finished 12th at Troon, his best Major finish yet, and has made the cut in the last two PGA Championships. Reed certainly has bags of confidence and maybe his Troon performance will spur him onto his first victory in two years.

The Open 2016

The third golfing Major of the year will take place this week at Royal Troon in Glasgow. Therefore because it is in the cold and barren land that has produced the likes of Andy Murray and Nicola Sturgeon it is bound to be a gloomy, damp and depressing setting, lets hope the golf lights up the stage and throws up an exciting back nine come Sunday.

As ever the betting companies are going all out to get your dosh so make sure you look out for the best price, the most places and any enhanced offers for new customers.

I have drawn up a little list of qualities I think the winner should possess -

• Those with Links golf experience.
• Anyone who is used to playing in adverse conditions. Rain, Sleet, Snow, Hurricanes etc the forecast is wet, wet, wet.
• The few who have shown confidence and a little bit of bottle when faced with a big stage.
• Not the favourite. Last year The Open was won by Zach Johnson, who was sent off at 100-1, maybe this is what gave Leicester hope in the Premier League?! In fact you need to go back to the Tiger Woods era ten years ago to find a winning favourite of this tournament.
• Anyone without an EU Passport  So despite this Major being on European soil, with the home team slightly improving their record here in recent years, it is two Americans and Aussie who currently head the field, and rightly so. The American army unfortunately has a great record at this event, taking 13 of the last 21 Claret Jugs. This, coupled with the fact that the last six winners at Royal Troon were all from across the Atlantic, you do have to wonder why the Europeans are even bothering to turn up.

So onto who will I be placing my pennies on:

Firstly I am going to ignore all of my advice and forget all three of the foreign favourites and back Rory McIlroy. 10-1 is a fair price, his game is heading in the right direction, the course and conditions should suit, and he will have the crowd (bar myself) behind him. Plus he is basically a Yank now anyway as he spends more time there than in Ireland.

N.B. **He did take NINE shots to get out of a bunker earlier this week... http://bit.ly/29y2Oh3**

A name who has crept up the betting to land a short price is Branden Grace. The South African has been very active on the European Tour this season and from his last five Major starts he has three top five finishes. He is 22-1 but I think there may be value elsewhere… Step forward Shane Lowry. He finished second in the US Open last month, has many of the credentials to fill the bullet points above (although he is another Guinness Swigger from Ireland) and he is great value at 35-1.

For some bigger priced players I am going to turn to last weekend’s Scottish Open. The Scottish Open is a good indicator of things to come. Phil Mickelson was the last winner of the event to go on and take the Major, therefore Alex Noren will be hoping to follow those footsteps. Two other players caught the eye last weekend, the New Zealander Danny Lee and the Scottish-native Russell Knox. Lee has made the cut in the first two Majors of the year, although he did miss it as last year’s Open, and is clearly on the upward curve. He recorded a Scottish Open top ten and is 125-1. Definitely worth an outside punt. Russell Knox, who lies at 80-1 in the betting, is another making some 2016 headway. He won the HSBC Championship at the end of last year and has a couple of top 20 finishes on the PGA Tour to his name.

I suppose now I best try and find some Americans to back. It is proving tricky to find some with some good Open form, other than those at the short end of the betting, and the first name that springs to mind is of course the 2013 Champion Phil Mickelson, who is 35-1. After that we are pushed; Bubba Watson has a dire Open record, Patrick Reed has played twice and managed 20th place last year whilst Brandt Snedeker and Matt Kuchar have one top ten to their name so... Lets head to Jim Furyk. We are getting a bit desperate but he has finished in the top ten six times and was second in the US Open last month. He did not make the cut when the Open last visited Troon in 2004 but he was fourth in 1997. At 70-1 he stands in better stead than his compatriots listed above.

PS I am obviously backing Rickie Fowler too. He actually made the cut on his last start, Links golf suits his game, he is 28-1 and I like looking at him when he wears orange.

US Open 2016

I know there is an abundance of sport on this weekend but England have already proved they will fail on the big stage in the football and Royal Ascot looks set to be a wash out, so why not tune into the US Open golf at Oakmont for the next four days? Many of the big firms are trying to get hold of your money by offering up to 8 places, and with many of the favourites having a life crisis or out of sorts there could well be another Danny Willett hovering in the field to give you a 66-1 winner come Sunday.

The US Open, which was won last year by Jordan Spieth, with Martin Kaymer taking the crown in 2014, has traveled to Pennsylvania this year, with the Oakmont course one of the most demanding on the PGA Tour. Therefore lets discount any known chokers (I really do not want to but this unfortunately rules of Dustin Johnson), any players with a current weak mental game (After his final round collapse during the Masters I will be putting Jordan Spieth in here, only time will heal those wounds) and anyone with issues off the course (probably 80% of the field seeing as the Tour is an extension of Wife Swap). That leads us nicely onto Tiger Woods, it does seem silly to even mention him, will he ever come back? However his success rate in the US Open is a constant reminder of how good he actually was. Get well soon Tiger.

The last time the tournament was played here Tiger was in his prime. In 2007 he finished second to Angel Cabrera, who won the tournament on a final round of just one under par. In fact the first round leader was only two shots under par. Therefore putting will once again remain high on the agenda for the eventual winner and it could end up being a case of if you are winning post Round Three you may be better to cash out, one poor shot could set you back five on the green when nerves are heightened so make sure you take advantage of any offers.

Of the leading favourites I think the only one worth punting on is Jason Day (13-2). Day is a superb putter and providing he hits the greens he should prove well at this course. As mentioned previously Jordan Spieth (9-1), who did land the Dean and DeLuca Invitational last month, may find it tricky to put his Masters collapse behind him just yet, Dustin Johnson (16-1) is in good form but is yet to show any sort of stamina on the Major stage, Rickie Fowler (25-1) is finding it hard to make a cut, and Rory McIlroy (7-1) is too busy trying to work out how to get out of his latest engagement to give his game any thought. Rory and Rickie are playing together for the first two rounds, this could well spur the youngsters on, so keep an eye on this tee off time. Of the old guard Phil Mickelson (28-1) played well last weekend, he has the temperament and skills to land this title, which would secure his grand slam of Major victories. Ignore him at your peril.

Of the English team I think it would be asking too much of Willett (33-1) to repeat his Masters success, therefore I would plump for Justin Rose, back issues permitting. Rose has played well on this course before and comes into the tournament fresh. Rose won his maiden Major in this event three years ago and is currently 25-1.

One of my favourite players would have fallen into one of the avoid categories last year (reportedly his wife left him for Tiger Woods) however Jason Dufner has physically shaped up once again and has been playing well. The Dufster made the cut when the tournament was last here, finishing 62nd, and was fourth in this event 2012 and 2013. That all combines to make his 80-1 price quite fanciable. Another of my favourites is of course Adam Scott and although he has been quiet of late this course should suit him. Scott, who lies at 28-1 in the market, has a fair record in this tournament, finishing in the top ten for the last two years. The only thing that puts me off is that he missed the cut in 2007 when the Major was last played at Oakmont but hopefully the postives outweigh this one negative.

My final pick is another player who has two top ten US finishes to his name in 2014/5 - Brandt Snedeker. Snedes, who is 55-1, was 23rd when we were last at Oakmont, and he recorded a top 20 finish last weekend.

Players Championship 2016

After a break post-Masters, where some of the younger crew enjoyed Spring Break, all the big names are back for this week’s Players Championship. Last year this provided a spectacular finish, with Rickie Fowler scoring at 55-1 despite being at least five shots behind before hitting the final 12 holes and then winning the three-way playoff. Obviously I backed Fowler at such a silly price but then I decided on the Saturday evening to swap half of my bet for half a bet on Billy Horschel, twat. Anyway this week should be exciting and I will be not making the same mistake, below are my thoughts on who should play well…

The big four are the favourites for this tournament and I can see justification that all four could claim victory come Sunday. Favourite Rory McIlroy played well at last week’s Wells Fargo and is a previous tournament winner. Rickie Fowler also ticks both of those boxes and is available at 18-1 as opposed to 8-1 for Rory so I would go with the former. Jordan Spieth looks to have put his Masters disappointment behind him and has been showcasing a relaxed approach to his game, however 11-1 is not a big enough price come Sunday if he has another bout of impatience. Finally comes Jason Day at 12-1, his best finish here was a sixth place in 2011 so he may need to pull his best game out of the bag to score this weekend. From this group I will go for Rickie, who was leading the Wells Fargo last week going into the final round.

Two other players caught the eye during last week’s tournament, Hideki Matsuyama and Phil Mickelson. Hideki is definitely in the midst of a purple patch of form but 22-1 may be a bit stiff with no real previous form at this course. Therefore I will back Phil Mickelson, who seems to have put a dismal Masters performance behind him, at 35-1. Phil won this in 2007, let’s hope he can do it again.

Other players who are worthy of a mention are last year’s runner-ups, Kevin Kisner and Sergio Garcia, who are 80-1 and 28-1 respectively. Kisner missed the cut at the Wells Fargo but managed a top 40 finish in the Masters while a former winner of this tournament, Sergio, has not played since his Augusta top 40 finish. I would go for Garcia, he clearly loves this course, finishing in the top ten for the last three years.

Finally let’s go for Kevin Na at 70-1. He managed to gain two low scoring rounds in this tournament last year, he has not missed the cut in his last five starts, and with many firms playing each way to seventh place, he is a definite each-way shot for me.

Masters Preview 2016

What a weekend of sport! Grand National and Masters, absolutely no need to leave the house for four whole days, make sure you get comfortable, have a number of snacks to hand and refuse all social invitations, it's time to get serious!

This year’s first golfing Major competition looks to be one of the most open yet, with stakes claimed for at least ten golfers who could easily be wearing green come Sunday evening. I am hoping the broadcasters rope in Tiger Woods for some commentating, his perspective at other tournaments has been unique and insightful, making everything more enjoyable for the viewer, lots of Tigger please!

The Masters is like the Cheltenham Festival, you either relish the prospect of Augusta and that Great Big Hill or you hate it. Make sure you back players who have had some success playing at Augusta before. Secondly go for someone who has a bit of recent form. Thirdly bet with Sky Bet, who will be offering a quarter of the odds for the first EIGHT! Then watch the ££ roll in… Below are my thoughts and who I think it best placed to claim victory, any feedback or ideas welcome!

Favourites
The best Australian duo since Jason and Kylie, Jason Day and Adam Scott, have been mopping up the recent PGA Tour events and having previous form at Augusta they both deserve their place towards the head of the betting. Equally the two wonder kids, Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth, with the latter hoping to retain the crown he scored in 2015, are short odds. Interesting to note Rory has announced he will be missing the par three competition to avoid distractions when trying to claim Major Grand Slam, his biggest distraction at the moment seems to be the gym, he currently resembles Popeye, but spinach may be the only green he has a glimpse of come Sunday. Never underestimate the power of Bubba Watson, who will be looking for a third green jacket to add to his collection, or the currently out of sorts Rickie Fowler but for me the only short priced selection who offers any value is Dustin Johnson. DJ has been playing well, he was third in the Houston Open last weekend, he was sixth in the Masters last year, and is best priced at 20-1! The other player is am always tempted to put some pennies on is Big Mickelson. He loves the big stage and can deliver, at 18-1 he offers better value than the young pretenders. To be honest I think the winner will come out of this group so deciding on some others to pick out of the rest of the field was tricky but here goes..

Middle Men
Some big names here including a lot of the nearly players, who have some close to scooping a Major but never yet reached that goal. One who does not fall into that category is the dual Major winner Zach Johnson. Placed at Augusta last year and good recent form, he definitely has the skills for Major competitions. The other Mr Johnson can be found at around 70-1. Fancy a solid 66-1 player who has three top ten finishes from his last four starts at this course? Then go for Kuccchhh!! Matt Kuchar, who would be a very popular winner with the crowd. The 37 year old is a solid Major competitor, despite being a maiden, but his record surely cements some good each way claims. Players I considered here were Patrick Reed and Louis Oosthuizen. The former has yet to deliver on his claims of being a top five player, his Masters record does not set the world on fire, but he has been in some half decent form. Louis has missed the cut four times from seven starts, worrying!

Outsiders
Not quite as big an outsider as he would have been two months ago, but the man of the moment Rafa Cabrera Bello has had a picture perfect start to 2016. Placings on both the European and PGA Tour must have surely boosted his confidence and although he is an unknown quantity on this course he deserves a shot at 100-1. Ryan Moore is not just a brilliant jockey, he can swing a golf club too. This is the first mention I have given this R Moore on the blog, he has never quite made it up to a top five finish at Major level but he has a few top 20 finishes, three around this course, and I think at 100-1 he could earn you some ££. Plus look at his recent form, he is extremely consistent through 2016 with a number of top 10 finishes to his name.

Good luck all!

Review of Cheltenham 2016

Well the 2016 Cheltenham Festival did not disappoint. Top class action, fairytale stories, beautiful weather and improved facilities made the week one of the most enjoyable yet. Below are my thoughts from the meeting:

Racing

Firstly I suppose we best talk about the actual horses! For me the stand out moment, and I am sure this is the same for many others, was seeing Sprinter Sacre cruise to such a lovely victory in the Champion Chase. If he is fit and well it would be lovely to see him at Aintree but if not he certainly has no more to prove and should enjoy a very happy retirement. Whether Cue Card would have beaten Don Cossack no one will ever know but the eventual winner was by far the best looking in the paddock and deserves every inch of the press he is getting, well done to all connections!! The focus for a lot of the main stream media on Friday was of course Victoria Pendelton’s ride in Foxhunters. I was, like many, was very worried for her, but she rallied and rode a superb race to finish fifth. I have read Lawney Hill’s comments on Facebook over the weekend and it really does seem like so many still want to be nasty, she rode amazingly, she is humble, and has done a credit to the sport. Leave her alone! Was rather interesting to the naked man running down the home straight during the Foxhunters, bit chilly I think. Does anyone know what that was all about?! The Mares Novice Hurdle was maybe not the right addition, could we not have a Veterans Chase? If not how about celebrity steeplechasing after VP’s success?!

Fashion

This is becoming a great part of the Festival and one of which I do enjoy. Getting dressed up to go racing makes the day more special, you feel good about yourself, and it gives the entire venue a brilliant atmosphere. The invention of Ladies Days at most courses have definitely upped the competition for wearing as little as possible for some but on the other three days the style was practical but aesthetically pleasing. One thing that does bug me is the need to wear summer hats to a clearly winter affair. Keep those for the wedding season ladies! Secondly do not wear flips flops or anything given out free.. Yellow Betfair Scarves and Guinness Hats were this year's worst offenders!!

Course Facilities

Well done to the Cheltenham team who have worked so hard to bring us the best possible viewing for this year’s four days. Improvements do need to keep coming, the walkways beneath the old stand are continually blocked with those drinking inside, maybe bifocal doors will help increase the flow here? One of my previous highlights used to be the number of shops dotted around the course and although I know they are not for everyone it would be great to see a few more. Food and drink are widely available and priced fairly, tea at £2.30 is a little steep but I suppose you do expect this. I did find a good choice of snacks, fresh flapjacks and tempura prawns were a big pluses personally, and I would definitely be tempted to try the curries available behind the weighing room in future. The house wines on draft were drinkable, the house champagne lovely, and we did enjoy a Guinness on St Paddys Day. Full marks from me here! NB: Annual Members were treated to a discount in The Wild Rabbit at Kingha, superb food, recommended without the discount but hope that continues next season!

Betting

I placed one bet on the Tote all week. The odds always seemed to be better with the Bookmakers and although I am a very small fish in a very large pond for Bookies I tended to bet on my phone through SkyBet and Paddy Power all week. The only annoying thing with this system was that I was unable to do this through the Jockey Club WiFi so had to drain my battery with 4G and take a power pack. Not always the quickest system but the odds and offers meant I had a profitable week and I hope everyone else did too!

Onwards to Aintree now!!